As the midpoint of conference play approaches, the Big Ten clearly appears to be separated into two tiers. Four of last week’s six games were losses, including the No. 1 team in the nation, Ohio State, taking on the state’s leading middleweight Bowling Green by a score of 35-7 at the Horseshoe.
In my opinion, the top tier is occupied by the Buckeyes, Michigan, Iowa and Wisconsin. With one limited exception, I wouldn’t expect any of these four teams to lose to the bottom seven. Wisconsin may struggle with its trip to West Lafayette in two weeks and Iowa may have a late-season battle with a trip to the Twin Cities. Will one of these two games be our Big Ten Game of the Year? Only time will tell, but good luck.
Other than that, four teams should end the season with impressive records and two should receive offers from BCS. I really hope Michigan and Ohio State can go into their meeting on Nov. 18 undefeated, as it would bring a lot of recognition to the conference. The winner of the game would easily finish the season atop the BCS standings and earn a spot in the national title game in Glendale, Arizona, to be called by former Wisconsin coach Barry Alvarez.
The following will recap some of the action from the past week and preview an important week ahead:
A wild game took place in Champaign, Illinois, when the Hoosiers called on Saturday. Illinois was coming off an impressive win and we felt the situation was right to squeeze them as eight-point favorites over Indiana. The Hoosiers were really struggling, they had lost three straight at home and were mixing and matching their offensive line. Things went as expected in the first quarter as Illinois scored 22 points en route to an early 25-7 lead. I felt like this game was in the bag, but then the Hoosiers rattled off 24 straight points to take a six-point lead. The teams went back and forth from that point and Indiana finally claimed the win on Austin Starr’s 33-yard field goal as time expired.
This was an embarrassing loss for Illinois as they could have taken the show to the next level. That could have created a three-game winning chance and given the Illini a winning record in conference play. The Fighting Illini rushed for 209 yards, but their downfall was that they converted only 1 of 11 third-down opportunities.
I don’t think a lot of people are upset about the coaching change that was made when they replaced Urban Meyer. But no matter who the coach is, this team continues to underperform as they have talent on paper. The next step for Illinois is a home date with Ohio. They enter as touchdown favorites and are 10-2 straight against MAC. The Hoosiers hope to take advantage of this stunning upset when they host Iowa at Memorial Stadium. The starting lineup has Iowa as a 17.5-point favorite and I wouldn’t expect this game to be close.
Another impressive win by a visiting team saw Penn State enter the Twin Cities and come out with a one-point win in overtime. The most intriguing stat from this game was that the Golden Gophers were limited to just 67 rushing yards. This is a team that lives off the land and that is quite an achievement for Joe Pa and his Lions. Minnesota has seen a big drop in talent at running back and Amir Pinnix couldn’t get the job done.
This game was close throughout as neither team was more than 7 points ahead and then Minnesota scored with just over a minute remaining to send it into overtime. They quickly turned into overtime when Bryan Cupito threw a 25-yard touchdown pass to Eric Decker to give the Gophers a six-point lead. However, Jason Giannini’s extra point hit the stud and bounced off. That gives the Lions confidence, and Tony Hunt’s 2-yard run and accompanying extra point gave them the win.
Will this game give Penn State a boost to come home and take on the Wolverines? It certainly could. Revenge will be on their minds after the heartbreaking loss in Ann Arbor last year.
Minnesota will have to regroup quickly as Paul Bunyan’s Ax will be on the line when they visit Madison. The Badgers will enter their homecoming game as 10.5-point favorites, and I wouldn’t expect Minnesota to struggle running the ball once again. However, an interesting stat from last week’s game is that QB Cupito threw for 348 yards. Pass defense may be the Badgers unit’s only weakness. Michigan will enter Happy Valley as a touchdown favorite looking to keep their perfect season alive. To me they are by far the best team and I would only consider playing the chalk.
Finally, a game that few people got to see was a border battle between Wisconsin and Northwestern. The game was on ESPN 360 and bar owners in Madison were struggling to find equipment that would allow this Internet broadcast to be viewed on big-screen televisions. From what I heard, not many of them were successful and therefore the business suffered.
Northwestern has traditionally been a thorn in the Badgers’ side, as they haven’t beaten them in two of the past three years (including last season’s 51-48 thriller). The Badgers jumped out with a 10-0 lead and it looked like an easy win for them. The Cats took advantage of the next nine points to get within one, but that was all they could do. Wisconsin gradually pulled away for a 41-9 victory.
Northwestern has lost its identity with the sudden passing of coach Randy Walker and its offense is just a shadow of its former self. They finished with just 216 yards of offense and the spread fools no one. RB PJ Hill continues to surprise opponents with his rushing ability and is the conference leader in yards. He has surpassed the century mark in five of his six games and should eclipse the 1,000 mark next week.
Up next for the Cats is a date at home with Purdue. The Boilers enter as touchdown favorites and it will be interesting to see which team responds, as both were eliminated last week. This would be a game to stay away from as both teams have trouble stopping opponents. The over seems to be the only possibility.
Next week’s other intriguing game features the No. 1 team in the land heading to East Lansing to take on the Spartans. Michigan State realizes this game is their season and their last chance to showcase their underachieving talent on the national stage. I said two weeks ago that they would get the Bucks or the Wolverines. They didn’t beat Michigan, so what to expect this week. The talent is there, but their minds tend to wander.
Final Thoughts on College Football
1) For those of you who played at Mississippi State, you must have been heartbroken when two touchdowns were scored with less than three minutes left. The dagger was a 50-yard punt return by Vaughn Rivers with 1:07 left that took the lead to 28 points.
2) When I bet, I always like to bet with big game managers as they seem to do whatever it takes to win. Urban Meyer fits into that bill along with Pete Carroll. Les Miles doesn’t and therefore I don’t trust his ability in a close game.
3) Teams continue to pummel San Diego State. I got a chance to see them in person and the offensive unit is definitely one of the worst in the nation. Keep putting up the big numbers until you can show me that you can score consistently.
Coming off a big win with our “Revenge Game of the Year,” we’re moving it to this Saturday’s card when we launch our “Underdog Game of the Year.” This team has an excellent chance to win this game outright and I’m going to take a serious look at the money line.
For those of you who haven’t tried our hockey service, I encourage you to do so. We’re running a special through Sunday, October 15, where you can get a week’s worth of selections for just $20. I make the selections myself and cater to the player who likes to bet big money on a game every night. We look forward to another great week in football and would love to have you on board.
Free choice: Take Texas Tech -8 over Colorado.
