If you want to calculate a horse race handicap and really get an idea of what’s going to happen, or at least identify the most likely winner, you’ll need to know what factors matter and how to use them. My own research has shown that class, speed, and recent form are the factors that will point you to more winners. You may think to yourself, “That’s not exactly news.” I agree. But the fact that those factors matter, and yet the people who supposedly understand and use them still lose, should show you that they’re not using them correctly.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying it’s always easy to handicap horse races and consistently pick winners, but it is possible. How good are you in handicap? Do you watch a race and really understand which horse has a speed advantage or a class advantage? Can you identify that special situation when a horse has an advantage in both speed and class? You may think that when a horse has the highest average speed and class, he is always a prohibitive favorite, but that is not the case.
One horse that recently ran and won at Belmont, and showed such an advantage, was Maya Charli, the 4th in the eighth race on Saturday, June 19. Maya Charli paid $16.20 to win and yet she showed the best class and speed using my key horse method. That is why I urge all handicappers to learn to identify speed and true class. Comparing your best picks with my key horses is one way to do it.
I define royal class as the ability to compete and finish well at or above the level that other horses in the race have recently faced. You can’t just look at the bags in the race and define the class. Anyone who has run enough horse races knows that the horses in a $10,000 claim race may not be the same caliber as the horses he will find in another race of equal stock value. Therefore, I watch the race and determine the skill level of each horse. The top horse, in other words, the one with the highest skill level, becomes the class of the race.
Any horse that can compete at that level in the race and has recently demonstrated that ability is considered a fit and ready horse. Any horse that is fit and ready should be considered in exotics. Again, you might think that a race with just one fit and ready horse would produce a prohibitive favorite, but on Friday June 18, Twofourseven won at Harrah’s Chester Race Track and paid $35.80. He had identified that horse, running from position 1, as the only fit and ready horse in the race.
What I’m trying to drive into you is that the basics really work in horse racing handicap just like the basics work in any field of endeavor, you just have to really master them. Think of horse racing as a sport, in fact many people call it an intellectual sport. Do you know of any sport that a professional athlete could play and win without mastering the basics? No matter how good an athlete can be, he or she can never forget the basics or the rest means nothing. The same is true for horse racing. Master the basics, learn to identify key horses and fit and ready horses, and one day you may become a professional handicapper.
